Subjective Probability
Jun 04,2008 00:00 by admin

[2]In the real world, events "5" and "7" could be the names given to two events in a "tree" or hierarchy of events requiring study. For example, events "5" and "7" could be error conditions that might occur. Rolling the dice is equivalent to simulating operational performance. Dr. David Hulett suggested the fault tree to the author.

[3]A might be one approach in a project and B might be another approach. Such a situation comes up often in projects in the form of "if, then, else" conditional branching.

[4]A finish-to-start precedence is a notation from precedence diagramming methodology. It denotes the situation that the finish of the first task is required before the start of the second (successor) task can ensue. It is often referred to as a "waterfall" relationship because, when drawn on paper, it gives the appearance of a cascade from one task to the other. More on critical path scheduling can be found in Chapter 6 of A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge. [5]

[4]A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) — 2000 Edition, Project Management Institute, Newtown Square, PA, chap. 6, p. 69