The
Process of Analysis
In preparing a CI report, the analyst faces a mass of data,
which has probably been accumulated in no particular order. It is usually
incomplete and can contain misinformation
and even disinformation. Analysis is the process by which this mass of raw data
is handled, so that the CI analyst can produce a finished product. In the
context of CI, the process of analysis is made up of separate sub processes:
-
gathering
-
incorporation
-
enlightenment
-
incubation
-
validation
Gathering All the
Relevant Data
Gathering the raw data involves more than the collection of
raw data that appears directly related to the problem at hand. It includes
getting access to all of the data accumulated, touching on these subjects or
targets. That accumulation has taken place both within this particular context
and over a lifetime of experiences.
Incorporating the
Data
Here the CI analyst carefully reviews all of the raw data.
This is not a onetime, quick-pass reading. It requires a slow and careful
reading of all materials, usually twice or even more. The best CI analysts will
review the materials in different ways each time: once organized by source,
another time organized by topic, and a third time in chronological order. The
goal is to master all the data, even that which does not, at first seem to be
important. Experience shows that it is often those particular bits of raw data
that later are found to have an unexpected connection or importance.
Incubation
Now the CI analyst thinks about everything that has been
collected. Consciously and unconsciously, the analyst assembles the facts in
various ways, so that one or more logical pictures begin to emerge. Incubation
almost always overlaps incorporation of the data because:
-
Both start as the data begins to come.
-
Both involve an evaluation of the validity of the data, as
well as the credibility of the source.
Beyond merely incorporating, however, incubation marks the
beginning of the real interpretation of the meaning of the raw data.
Enlightenment
After studying the problem presented by the end user and the
data bearing on it, the real meaning of the data, and thus
a solution to the problem, finally become clear. Sometimes this enlightenment
can occur in a flash, but more often, it is a gradual process. Enlightenment
encompasses the actual analysis of the raw data, in the sense of drawing
conclusions, data interpretation, and the formation and testing of
hypotheses.
Validation
In this stage the CI analyst seeks to prove, or disprove,
the solution that presented itself during enlightenment. This is not merely verifying the raw data. It involves drawing
specific conclusions and then testing the validity of the conclusions against
the observed facts, before presenting them to management.