Likelihood
One problem often associated with presenting intelligence
conclusions is that there can be lacks of consistency in communicating how
"good" or "strong" the conclusions are. For example, it is very common to
include in a report a phrase such as, "it has been reported that. . . ." Such a
phrase really provides no useful CI to the end user. That is because it fails
either to identify the source (which could allow at least some determination of
the likelihood that the data is correct) or to give the CI analyst's opinion on
how accurate that report actually is.
One way to overcome this problem is to develop, and then use with
consistency, a standard set of phrases that establish a sense of likelihood for
both the CI analyst, and for the end user reading that analysis. In addition, by
forcing analysts to think in these terms, it helps them focus on their own
conclusions as well as provide a more accurate sense of what they have found for
the end users. Table 12.1 is
merely a suggested way to deal with this.
Table 12.1: Likelihood Phrase Set
|
Probability |
Expressed as |
| |
As "Odds" |
In Words |
|
Virtually certain |
50:1 or more |
Plain statement of fact |
|
Almost certain [a] |
9:1 or higher |
I believe that ...
[Source] indicates that ...
It is evident that ...
It is apparent that ...
There is little doubt that ...
This undoubtedly will ... |
|
Chances are good [b] |
3:1 in favor |
It is probable that ...
It is fairly certain that ...
It appears to be ...
It should be ...
It is expected to ...
It is logical to assume that ...
It is reasonable to conclude that ... |
|
Chances are about even |
1:1 |
... fifty-fifty ... |
|
Inconclusive |
Unknown |
It is possible that ...
It could have ...
It may/might be ... |
|
|