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Likelihood


Likelihood

One problem often associated with presenting intelligence conclusions is that there can be lacks of consistency in communicating how "good" or "strong" the conclusions are. For example, it is very common to include in a report a phrase such as, "it has been reported that. . . ." Such a phrase really provides no useful CI to the end user. That is because it fails either to identify the source (which could allow at least some determination of the likelihood that the data is correct) or to give the CI analyst's opinion on how accurate that report actually is.

One way to overcome this problem is to develop, and then use with consistency, a standard set of phrases that establish a sense of likelihood for both the CI analyst, and for the end user reading that analysis. In addition, by forcing analysts to think in these terms, it helps them focus on their own conclusions as well as provide a more accurate sense of what they have found for the end users. Table 12.1 is merely a suggested way to deal with this.

Table 12.1: Likelihood Phrase Set

Probability

Expressed as

 

As "Odds"

In Words

Virtually certain

50:1 or more

Plain statement of fact

Almost certain [a]

9:1 or higher

I believe that ...

[Source] indicates that ...

It is evident that ...

It is apparent that ...

There is little doubt that ...

This undoubtedly will ...

Chances are good [b]

3:1 in favor

It is probable that ...

It is fairly certain that ...

It appears to be ...

It should be ...

It is expected to ...

It is logical to assume that ...

It is reasonable to conclude that ...

Chances are about even

1:1

... fifty-fifty ...

Inconclusive

Unknown

It is possible that ...

It could have ...

It may/might be ...

[a]For "Almost certain . . . not," use negatives of the same phrases.

[b]For "Chances are good that ... not," use negatives of the same phrases.


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  • great article
(Posted on February 14, 2010, 1:25 PM rhifat)