Due Dates
CI should be provided when and to whom needed. That is
because CI, like many other types of information, often has a relatively short
"half-life." Half-life refers to the period of time for
which the data you have collected and the
analysis you have generated retains at least 50 percent of its accuracy and
relevance.
In the case of raw data collected for CI, the half-lives can vary
widely. Typically the more micro-level and the more future oriented the
information is, the shorter is the half-life, while the more macro level and
historically oriented the data is , the longer is its half-life. In the case of
raw data collected for CI, the half lives are typically like those described in
Figure 9.2.
The same concept of half-life also applies to the resulting CI
analysis you develop. When the intelligence is important, try to caution your
end users to be conscious of its short "shelf life." CI end users should not
just store an intelligence estimate and then drag it out a year later, expecting
it still to be accurate. The conclusion you draw or the report you present is
completely valid only as of the date you completed it.
Therefore, the less time there is between the dates the research and analysis
ended and the date when the CI is needed, the better the outcome will be for all
concerned.
In addition, when dealing with an intermediary, the due date a CI
professional is given may frequently be one that allows the intermediary time to
digest or use the CI, thus making the information even older than it has to be.
CI should properly be treated more as an input to a just-in-time process than as
an asset that can be warehoused until needed.
There is another facet to due dates. That relates to the
habit of some managers to move up previously established deadlines. In the case
of CI, this does not mean, for example, if the time for an assignment is cut by
25 percent, then the end user can expect 75 percent of the anticipated product.
Such a cut, for example, would mean that the CI professional would probably
still be in the data-gathering stage. Any cuts would come from the analysis
stage. In other words, by cutting the time for a CI project once it has begun,
the end user is removing most, if not all, of that time from the analysis stage. The result is that the
end user will get something more like a "data dump" than a finished, usable
analysis.