Super Business - Project Management Articles


Sections
Syndication



Statistical Parameters of Other Program Milestones


[2]Actually, whether or not the project manager proactively thinks about the random nature of the task durations and assigns a probability distribution to a task does not change the fact that the majority of tasks in projects (projects we define as one-time endeavors never done exactly the same way before) are risky and tasks have some randomness to their duration estimate. Therefore, the fact that the project manager does not or did not think about this randomness does not change the reality of the situation. Therefore, the conclusions cited in the text regarding the application of the Central Limit Theorem and the Law of Large Numbers are not invalidated by the fact that the project manager may not have gone to the effort to estimate the duration randomness.

[3]Strictly speaking, the Law of Large Numbers and the Central Limit Theorem are applicable to linear sums of durations. The critical path usually qualifies as a linear summation of durations. Merge points, fixed dates, and PDM relationships other than finish-to-start do not qualify.


129 times read

Related news

» The Central Limit Theorem and Law of Large Numbers
by admin posted on Jun 04,2008
» Central Limit Theorem
by admin posted on Jun 04,2008
» The Normal Distribution
by admin posted on Jun 04,2008
» What terms are used in the estimate
by admin posted on Oct 06,2010
» Expected Value and Average
by admin posted on Jun 04,2008