Statistical
Parameters of Other Program Milestones
The Central Limit Theorem is almost unlimited in its
handiness to the project manager. Given that there is a "large number" of tasks
leading up to any program or project milestone, and large is usually taken to be
ten or more as a working estimate, then the distribution of that milestone is
approximately Normal. The discussion of the output milestone applies in all
respects, most importantly the statements about using the Normal confidence
curves or tables.
Therefore, some good advice for every project manager is to
obtain a handbook of numerical tables or learn to use the Normal function in any
spreadsheet program that has statistical functions. Of course, every project
manager learns the confidence figures for ±1, 2, or 3 standard deviations: they
are, respectively, 68.26, 95.46, and 98.76.