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Significance of Normal Distributed Output MilestoneSignificance of Normal Distributed Output MilestoneThe significance of the fact that the output milestone is approximately Normal distributed is not trivial. Here is why. Given the symmetry of the Normal curve, a Normal distributed output milestone means there is just as likely a possibility that the schedule will underrun (complete early) as overrun (complete late). Confronted with such a conclusion, most project managers would say: "No! The schedule is biased toward overrun." Such a reaction simply means that either the schedule is too short and the Normal output milestone is too aggressive, or the project manager has not thought objectively about the schedule risk. Consider this conclusion about a Normal output milestone from another point of view. Without even considering what the distributions of the individual tasks on the WBS might be, whether BETA or Triangular or Normal or whatever, the project manager remains confident that the output milestone is Normal in its distribution! That is to say that there is a conclusion for every project, and it is the same conclusion for every project — the summation milestone of the critical path is approximately Normal. [3] 225
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