Percent Gain After Bear Market

  Percent Gain After Bear Market
The percentage gain after bear markets, can be substantial, as Table
1-7 illustrates. During the 2000–2002 bear market (not shown in the
table) there have been at least five large rallies. Rallies have been persistent
even during the 1930s bear market. The S&P experienced at
TA B L E 1-7
Recoveries After Bear Markets
Percent Gain from S&P 500 Low
Bear Market 2 mos. 6 mos. 9 mos. 12 mos.
Ended After After After After
June ’49 13 23 26 42
October ’57 1 10 19 31
June ’62 14 21 27 33
October ’66 12 22 25 33
May ’70 12 23 40 44
October ’74 8 31 52 38
August ’82 31 44 60 58
December ’87 13 19 18 21
October ’90 11 28 28 29
October ’02 15 11 29
Average 13 23 32 37
Source: “Patience Will Be Rewarded,” Standard & Poors’ The Outlook, September 24, 2002.
Note: L. Masonson added data for 2002, since the low hadn’t occurred when this article was written.
The 15 percent gain is from the October 9, 2002, low through December 9, 2002.

five substantial advances between March 2000 and July 2003, rallying
between 22 percent to 29 percent each time. Market timing can provide
the tool you need to capture a fair percentage of these gains, as
you shall see.