Economic
Factors that Drive Market Demand
By linking the business planning process to the economic
environment, business managers are better equipped to understand whether
Strategic Alternatives are creating value. Assessment of the economy involves
both examining current conditions and analyzing the future economic outlook
based on selected current economic factors. To make more meaningful and complete
assumptions, businesses sometimes build forecasting models. Such models can
provide a more realistic understanding of
possible outcomes and the risks inherent in your business. In order to build a
forecasting model, it is important to create and validate a framework for
economic (and financial) forecasting. This can involve one or more of the
following:
-
Identifying data patterns and applying time series modeling
techniques
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Modeling and forecasting your key business drivers
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Selecting and using appropriate measures in your forecasting
model
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Simulating a complete forecast
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Dealing with uncertainty
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Weighing approaches to interest rate risk
modeling
The importance of these specific economic factors in your business
is validated through statistical techniques such as regression analysis
(discussed in Chapter 9). Here are some prevalent indicators used in
analyzing the economy:
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Gross national product (GNP)
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Gross domestic product (GDP)
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Inflation (deflation) CPI
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Interest rates